<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of meteo-03543728</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-05-04T04:42:07+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="en">Calibrated ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow using quantile regression forests and ensemble model output statistics</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Guillaume</forename>
                <surname>Evin</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">d58d96a26baa87c43cbc4f1253716ba4</email>
              <email type="domain">inrae.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">guillaume-evin</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">171466</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">43145-171466</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3456-9441</idno>
              <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=N9XKGl4AAAAJ&amp;hl=fr</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/069307571</idno>
              <orgName ref="#struct-577435"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-577435"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Matthieu</forename>
                <surname>Lafaysse</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">b73eca4c60aaea6e48e2f2db7acb584f</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1331305</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1074159-1331305</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0095-4660</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-1042703"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Maxime</forename>
                <surname>Taillardat</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">786339</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1265250-786339</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2039-4476</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/224687867</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Michaël</forename>
                <surname>Zamo</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">7bb352d23ca15667570addcb5b9febf8</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1157057</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">2051343-1157057</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2683-8288</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>Maxime</forename>
                <surname>Taillardat</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
              <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
            </editor>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2022-01-26 15:40:30</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2025-10-23 08:06:02</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2022-01-26 15:40:36</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2021</date>
              <date type="whenEndEmbargoed">2022-01-26</date>
              <ref type="file" target="https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03543728v1/document">
                <date notBefore="2022-01-26"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="file" subtype="greenPublisher" n="1" target="https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03543728v1/file/npg-28-467-2021.pdf" id="file-3544365-3103287">
                <date notBefore="2022-01-26"/>
              </ref>
              <ref type="externalLink" target="https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/28/467/2021/npg-28-467-2021.pdf"/>
              <fs>
                <f name="inra_etatDocument_local" notation="numeric">
                  <numeric>0</numeric>
                </f>
                <f name="inra_etatDocument_local" notation="string" n="0">
                  <string>inra_etatDocument_local_0</string>
                </f>
                <f name="inra_publicVise_local" notation="string" n="SC">
                  <string>inra_publicVise_local_SC</string>
                </f>
              </fs>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="567569">
                <persName>
                  <forename>Maxime</forename>
                  <surname>Taillardat</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
                <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">meteo-03543728</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://meteofrance.hal.science/meteo-03543728</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">evin:meteo-03543728</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics&lt;/i&gt;, 2021, 28 (3), pp.467-480. &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-467-2021"&gt;&amp;#x27E8;10.5194/npg-28-467-2021&amp;#x27E9;&lt;/a&gt;</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2021, 28 (3), pp.467-480. &amp;#x27E8;10.5194/npg-28-467-2021&amp;#x27E9;</idno>
            <availability status="restricted">
              <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY 4.0 - Attribution<ref corresp="#file-3544365-3103287"/></licence>
            </availability>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="INSU">INSU - Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="METEO">Météo France</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UGA">HAL Grenoble Alpes</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="OMP">Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="GIP-BE">GIP Bretagne Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="TDS-MACS">Réseau de recherche en Théorie des Systèmes Distribués, Modélisation, Analyse et Contrôle des Systèmes</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="INRAE">Institut National de Recherche en Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UGA-EPE">Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-*]</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="RESEAU-EAU">Réseau "Systèmes Agricoles et Eau"</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM">Centre national de recherches météorologiques</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM-CEN" corresp="CNRM">Centre d’Etudes de la Neige</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRM-GMAP" corresp="CNRM">Groupe de Modélisation et d'Assimilation pour la Prévision</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="TEST-UGA">TEST-UGA</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="en">Calibrated ensemble forecasts of the height of new snow using quantile regression forests and ensemble model output statistics</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Guillaume</forename>
                    <surname>Evin</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">d58d96a26baa87c43cbc4f1253716ba4</email>
                  <email type="domain">inrae.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">guillaume-evin</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">171466</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">43145-171466</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3456-9441</idno>
                  <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=N9XKGl4AAAAJ&amp;hl=fr</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/069307571</idno>
                  <orgName ref="#struct-577435"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-577435"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Matthieu</forename>
                    <surname>Lafaysse</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">b73eca4c60aaea6e48e2f2db7acb584f</email>
                  <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1331305</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1074159-1331305</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0095-4660</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-1042703"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Maxime</forename>
                    <surname>Taillardat</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">4e1da498342ee72e7b57d43c5ac98afd</email>
                  <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">786339</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">1265250-786339</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2039-4476</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/224687867</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Michaël</forename>
                    <surname>Zamo</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">7bb352d23ca15667570addcb5b9febf8</email>
                  <email type="domain">meteo.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">1157057</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">2051343-1157057</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2683-8288</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-454014"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-490594"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">1825</idno>
                <idno type="issn">1023-5809</idno>
                <idno type="eissn">1607-7946</idno>
                <title level="j">Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics</title>
                <imprint>
                  <publisher>European Geosciences Union (EGU)</publisher>
                  <biblScope unit="volume">28</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="issue">3</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="pp">467-480</biblScope>
                  <date type="datePub">2021</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
              <idno type="doi">10.5194/npg-28-467-2021</idno>
              <idno type="wos">000697168100001</idno>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="en">English</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.ocean">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="info.info-ai">Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="math.math-st">Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="nlin.nlin-cd">Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="phys.phys.phys-ao-ph">Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.envi">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu.hy">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdu.stu.me">Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="stat.ap">Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="stat.ml">Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML]</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>Abstract. Height of new snow (HN) forecasts help to prevent critical failures of infrastructures in mountain areas, e.g. transport networks and ski resorts. The French national meteorological service, Météo-France, operates a probabilistic forecasting system based on ensemble meteorological forecasts and a detailed snowpack model to provide ensembles of HN forecasts. These forecasts are, however, biased and underdispersed. As for many weather variables, post-processing methods can be used to alleviate these drawbacks and obtain meaningful 1 to 4 d HN forecasts. In this paper, we compare the skill of two post-processing methods. The first approach is an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, which can be described as a nonhomogeneous regression with a censored shifted Gamma distribution. The second approach is based on quantile regression forests, using different meteorological and snow predictors. Both approaches are evaluated using a 22 year reforecast. Thanks to a larger number of predictors, the quantile regression forest is shown to be a powerful alternative to EMOS for the post-processing of HN ensemble forecasts. The gain of performance is large in all situations but is particularly marked when raw forecasts completely miss the snow event. This type of situation happens when the rain–snow transition elevation is overestimated by the raw forecasts (rain instead of snow in the raw forecasts) or when there is no precipitation in the forecast. In that case, quantile regression forests improve the predictions using the other weather predictors (wind, temperature, and specific humidity).</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-577435" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/003vg9w96</idno>
          <orgName>Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">INRAE</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-1042703" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">240648315</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02rx3b187</idno>
          <orgName>Université Grenoble Alpes</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UGA</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Adresse CS 40700 - 38058 Grenoble cedex</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-454014" status="VALID">
          <orgName>Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">DIRSE</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>Météo-France Direction Interrégionale Sud-Est2 boulevard du château double13098 AIX-EN-PROVENCE CEDEX 02</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-1079823" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-490594" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">033821275</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000102168454</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">201320566C</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/004rej139</idno>
          <orgName>Centre national de recherches météorologiques</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRM</orgName>
          <date type="start">2013-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis31057 TOULOUSE</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation name="UMR3589" active="#struct-300045" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR3589" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-443875" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-1079823" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-1079823" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/0233st365</idno>
          <orgName>Météo-France</orgName>
          <date type="start">1993-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>73 avenue de Paris94165 Saint-Mande Cedex</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.meteofrance.com/accueil</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300045" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">029349265</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000 0001 2154 1736</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/04kdfz702</idno>
          <idno type="Wikidata">Q3152437</idno>
          <orgName>Institut national des sciences de l'Univers</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">INSU - CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">2007-04-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>INSU-CNRS3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris Cedex 16</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.insu.cnrs.fr</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02feahw73</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-443875" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/017tgbk05</idno>
          <orgName>Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">Comue de Toulouse</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>41 Allée Jules Guesde, 31000 Toulouse</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.univ-toulouse.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>